Winter usually makes operating conditions worse in the first quarter of the year for everyone. Winter shipment delays and increased downtime are expected. Public companies and analysts often reduce guidance and estimates to account for first-quarter weather, but never in our experience do they increase guidance and estimates for better-than-expected weather.
But this has been no ordinary winter storm (it’s the worst on record dating back 18 years of data keeping), both in terms of geographic breadth and impact across modes. In fact, it has been a historic week since it will shape Texas power policy going forward. Also extraordinary is the coverage of the adverse weather conditions, blanketing ~75% of the population with snow.
We show the SONAR charts in the following pages not only to say, “Look what a big impact weather is having,” but mainly to highlight to the broader transportation community what data we recommend tracking to see how freight networks are recovering, or not recovering.
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