The question on our minds now is whether Dallas is the first stage of another March-like surge in refrigerated volumes driven by the coronavirus. In response to a spike in new infections, Texas officials closed bars and limited restaurants, causing outbound and inbound Dallas reefer volumes to turn upward to
Over the past three decades, TMSes have evolved beyond the management of shipments to encompass many more processes and bring shippers, intermediaries, and carriers closer together. TMSes that began their lives as relatively siloed, on-premise platforms requiring large amounts of manual data entry are now connected via API to shipper
April market conditions that were favorable to freight brokerages — loosening truck capacity and declining spot rates — reversed themselves in May, and in June, gross margins progressively narrowed on higher volumes and lower revenues. Contrary to the guidance offered by 3PL management teams on Q1 earnings calls, we
UPS’s new C-suite led by Carol Tomé has its work cut out for it: Negotiate an increasingly risky relationship with Amazon that has juiced Domestic Package volumes but compressed margins; make real progress on the challenge of B2C delivery density; drive international volume growth; and stabilize earnings. Most of this
Perhaps it goes without saying that the relationship between consumer spending, retail spending, and freight volumes seems intuitive, but is actually unclear. After all, consumer spending fell 13.6% in April compared to the month prior, and is expected to be negative on a year-over-year basis in May, but truckload volumes
The current business environment for operators of asset-based trucking carriers is extremely challenging. Apart from safety and insurance, fuel spreads, and used truck prices – the carrier-specific metrics covered in this report – loose capacity, low spot market volumes and low rates are the most important backdrop for carriers, and
Outbound refrigerated freight from California is surging, driving up rates and tender rejections. Reefer capacity tightened in the middle of the country, too, but loosened slightly in Florida. In our discussion of spot rates below, brokers told us that in some important lanes, spot rates are actually higher year-over-year. We
West Coast ports have taken their medicine; now it’s time for the East Coast to suffer. China’s economy is working to make up for lost time (air pollution now exceeds 2019 levels), and West Coast volumes have already started reaping the benefits, gaining momentum out of their March trough. Economic
The modern operating strategies known collectively as precision scheduled railroading (PSR) have driven profound changes in the way railroads think about their workforces, revenue growth, assets, facilities, networks and customer service. In this piece, we explore the past, present and future of PSR through two decades of railroad industry financial
When the financial markets come under stress and the U.S. enters a recession, creditanalysis always comes back to the forefront and is the most important considerationof investors. This is where we find ourselves now in the aftermath of COVID-19becoming a global pandemic that has effectively shut down much of the
Warehouses and the humans on which they depend are under numerous pressures, from tight labor markets to viral outbreaks. It’s the perfect time to perform a quick check on the state of the warehousing industry, including capacity, rents, employment, automation and use cases for fully automated facilities. Warehousing markets continue
Stay at home and work from home have accelerated demand for e-commerce giant Amazon’s services and products, sending its stock price up 27% year-to-date, to all-time highs, at a moment when the S&P 500 is down 14% year-to-date. Crises may cloud economic forecasts, but there is another sense in which
The five largest markets took share from the smallest 50.
Reefer volumes are still up 21% y/y, but they're falling fast.
Congress just passed a $2 trillion stimulus package. This figure equates to 9% of 2019 U.S. GDP of $21.5 trillion. As COVID-19 rapidly spreads and has become a pandemic, vast swaths of the global economy are shut down, which should lead to mounting unemployment and a deep recession. The second-to-last
Diesel rack prices are falling faster than retail, but we're bearish on values for 3 year old trucks.
Trucking carriers and 3PLs reported that volumes softened this week.
Shorthaul reefer loads on the East Coast are outperforming the rest of the freight market, although dry van volumes are up, too.
Leading indicators are flashing red.
We game out best, base, and worst cases for the U.S. macroeconomy, financial markets, and freight markets.
We reflect on the causes of private equity's spotty record in asset-based trucking.