Gaming out an Uber Freight deal

First, reports came out that Uber Freight (UF) was being “re-evaluated,” although its demise was not imminent. The more recent news about a potential deal to sell an equity stake in Uber Freight has renewed the industry conversation around Freight’s business model, sustainability and future.

In what follows, we narrate Uber Freight’s growth story, from its beginnings as a marketplace growth-hack in Jason Droege’s Uber Everywhere to its explosive 2018 in a very tight trucking market and its peak revenue, international expansion and product development in 2019. 

Eventually Uber management priorities shifted, freight brokerage became more price-competitive, and Uber Freight’s growth stalled.

Secondly, we offer our own valuation of Uber Freight based on Wall Street revenue growth estimates and peer valuations, concluding that Uber Freight is actually worth $1.1 billion-$1.6 billion. 

Finally, we discuss the universe of potential buyers by category and plausibility. We tend to believe that the companies that would benefit from acquiring Uber Freight would do so by either removing a direct competitor or by benefiting from an accretive deal (i.e., the buyer would also be a richly valued startup).