Relative capacity — measured by the percentage of contracted truckloads rejected by carriers and brokers — stayed loose through month-end, with national rejections at 5.36%.

It’s the freight on the Pacific Ocean that has us worried. Customs imports into Los Angeles/Long Beach are 23% below 2019’s Chinese New Year-related trough. Intermodal shipments out of the same market are also down well below last year’s trough.

Trucking spot markets are already pricing in anticipated weakness in California, with rates rising going into Southern California markets and outbound rates falling through the floor. Freight brokers told us this week they were moving trucks out of Los Angeles for $1 to $1.15 per mile, inclusive of fuel, depending on the destination.

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