Carriers are still exercising optionality and charging a premium to drive into backhaul markets.
Expect volatility to the upside in Q4.
Shippers, especially retailers, are giving ground on price to secure capacity for what promises to be an unpredictable Q4.
Rates pulled back by 1.3% w/w, but moves by brokerages and carriers indicate they think the rally has legs.
Even assuming that Nikola's truck can do what Trevor Milton said it can do, the company's business model is exceptionally difficult to execute.
Tender rejections have fallen for a week, but that doesn't mean that rates will.
Everything is in place for a face-ripping rally in Q4.
Relationships between shippers and transportation providers are being reshuffled.
Los Angeles and Dallas are driving the national market.
There's a routing guide shake-up happening right now.
The automotive, chemicals, and food industries are fueling North American economic integration.
Rejections and rates set to go higher from here on sustained shifts in consumer behavior.
We don't think that capacity will loosen soon, but upward pressure on contract rates will take time.
Trucking markets are increasingly diverging from seasonal patterns.
The summer rally has already been stronger and longer than in 2018 and 2019.
126 of 135 freight markets saw tighter trucking capacity than they did last week.
Now volumes are only down 3.36% year-over-year.
If volumes ramp, Q2 could also be challenging for freight brokers.
In Q1, some railroads grew intermodal (Canadian Pacific), some kept it flat (CSX), while others saw steep declines (Union Pacific).
Keep an eye on markets important to Texas, including Los Angeles, Phoenix, and Dallas, over the next week.
Dallas, Allentown, and Salt Lake City saw volumes grow week-over-week.