, DFBs have grown exponentially, raising the specter of whether they represent a material threat to traditional freight brokers. Due to the DFBs’ rapidly growing gross revenues (even though their net revenue base is likely quite small), their collective valuation has reached well into the billions of dollars based on the latest funding rounds. The prototypical bull case for DFBs centers around traditional freight brokerage being ripe for technological disruption because it is said to be a highly manual industry where the use of phones and email as the primary mechanisms for booking freight is still commonplace. By replacing humans and manual processes with algorithms and big data, DFBs believe they can dramatically reduce friction and inefficiencies. In the following white paper, we conduct an analysis to determine what the true TAM is for DFBs. We also attempt to assess the reasonableness of current DFB valuations assuming their forecasted bright futures become reality.

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